I’ve made many a blunder on these pages, but two of them were extra-large, appeared in the same 2023 Big Ten football preview column and probably should have gotten me arrested or at least pelted with watery footballs in a public square.
Not only did I pick Illinois to win the West division last season, but I also had Northwestern eating dirt as the worst team in the conference. As it turned out, embarrassingly wrong on both counts.
Ah, well. It’s that time again, and onward we go.
The conference has 18 teams now, ridiculous but true, including four newcomers from what used to be Pac-12 country. Divisions are out the window, making it an 18-team free-for-all in which whom you play — and whom you don’t — could mean everything. The top two in the standings will meet in a championship game and, chances are good, both move on to the College Football Playoff, which has tripled in size from four teams to 12. The Big Ten will be disappointed if it doesn’t put at least three into the field.
How I’ve stacked ’em up:
1. Oregon
2023: 12-2 overall, 8-1 Pac-12
2024 regular-season prediction: 11-1, 8-1
THE DUCKS have the current Heisman Trophy favorite in transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel, a sensational receiver group — watch those Big Ten passing records fall — and the Ohio State game at Autzen Stadium. It’s a playoff-or-bust recipe.
2. Ohio State
2023: 11-2, 8-1
2024 regular-season prediction: 11-1, 8-1
THE BUCKEYES’ monster pass rush — in partnership with Pro Football Focus’ No. 1-ranked secondary in the land — will crush most opponents. The same can be said about this team’s run game. Beat Michigan and win a natty? It’s very possible.
3. Penn State
2023: 10-3, 7-2
2024 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 7-2
THE NITTANY LIONS have elite-level talent all over the defensive front seven and the league’s best running back combo after OSU. If QB Drew Allar takes the next step, watch out. Lions-Buckeyes in Happy Valley will be bonkers.
4. Iowa
2023: 10-4, 7-2
2024 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 7-2
THE HAWKEYES will be brutally good on defense as usual, with PFF’s No. 1-ranked linebacking corps leading the charge. As for the offense, new coordinator Tim Lester and QB Cade McNamara have to make the word “prehistoric” go away.
5. USC
2023: 8-5, 5-4 Pac-12
2024 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 7-2
THE TROJANS move on from their last QB, some guy you’ve never heard of, but offensive skill is hardly an issue and avoiding both Oregon and OSU is an absolute gift.
6. Michigan
2023: 15-0, 9-0
2024 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 6-3
THE WOLVERINES are rebuilding as much as reloading on offense, it’s probably safe to say, and the loss of coach Jim Harbaugh is no small deal. Another killer “D” will shoulder the load.
7. Nebraska
2023: 5-7, 3-6
2024 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 6-3
THE HUSKERS are putting the oomph back into the “Blackshirts” tradition, defense leading the way as everyone knew it would under terrific coach Matt Rhule. The bowl drought (since 2016) ends now.
8. Washington
2023: 14-1, 9-0 Pac-12
2024 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 5-4
THE HUSKIES have two starters back — yep, that’s it — from a national runner-up squad. Oh, and the coach left for Alabama. A 4-0 start, all at Husky Stadium, will help everybody breathe.
9. Illinois
2023: 5-7, 3-6
2024 regular-season prediction: 7-5, 4-5
THE ILLINI need to run it better, throw it better, defend against the pass better, finish close games better and — in Year 4 for Bret Bielema — coach better, too. Time to pick it up, fellas.
10. Wisconsin
2023: 7-6, 5-4
2024 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 4-5
THE BADGERS have a mid-September opportunity in Madison against Alabama that could launch Luke Fickell’s program in epic fashion. Not likely. Maybe two months later when Oregon visits?
11. Rutgers
2023: 7-6, 3-6
2024 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 4-5
THE SCARLET KNIGHTS are a popular pick to make more noise than this — it’ll be a kick if they do — but the conference record since coming aboard is 16-72. Let’s chill a little.
12. Indiana
2023: 3-9, 1-8
2024 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 4-5
THE HOOSIERS are another popular pick to surge — all new coach Curt Cignetti did at James Madison was win — but it’s not like this was a lateral move for all the JMU transfers Cignetti brought with him.
13. Maryland
2023: 8-5, 4-5
2024 regular-season prediction: 5-7, 3-6
THE TERRAPINS finally get to enjoy a season without Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule. Enter USC and Oregon instead.
14. Michigan State
2023: 4-8, 2-7
2024 regular-season prediction: 5-7, 3-6
THE SPARTANS face Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan back-to-back-to-back-to-back and, well, thanks for playing, guys. Be sure to grab a parting gift on your way out.
15. Northwestern
2023: 8-5, 5-4
2024 regular-season prediction: 5-7, 2-7
THE WILDCATS are being somewhat overlooked again by me. Another blunder? The betting sites have set the over/under for wins at 4½.
16. Minnesota
2023: 6-7, 3-6
2024 regular-season prediction: 4-8, 2-7
THE GOPHERS went bowling last season with a 5-7 record, which still is laughable. Coach P.J. Fleck hasn’t fared as poorly as 2-7 in the league since 2017, his debut season.
17. UCLA
2023: 8-5, 5-4 Pac-12
2024 regular-season prediction: 2-10, 1-8
THE BRUINS had better come through in coach DeShaun Foster’s home debut, because there isn’t another winnable game on the schedule until mid-October.
18. Purdue
2023: 4-8, 3-6
2024 regular-season prediction: 2-10, 0-9
THE BOILERMAKERS probably won’t lose ’em all in league play. It’s hard to lose ’em all. Many terrible teams have accidentally won once or twice. Feel better now, Boilers fans?