Historian Allan Lichtman said that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exiting the 2024 presidential race would help Vice President Kamala Harris‘ campaign for the White House.
When it was put to him during a YouTube livestream on his channel that, according to his election prediction system, Kennedy dropping out and endorsing former President Donald Trump would help Harris, Lichtman replied: “Absolutely correct.”
“[Kennedy’s] endorsement of Trump has nothing to do with the keys – [it] doesn’t turn a key one way or the other.”
Lichtman also noted that he hasn’t definitively called [the “third party”] key, but said “it certainly doesn’t look like [Kennedy] is going to rebound.”
“I’m still reserving judgement,” he added.
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman for comment via email outside of standard working hours.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Lichtman rose to prominence for his prediction model, “The Keys to the White House.” His impressive accuracy forecasting the last 10 election outcomes using this system has earned him the nickname “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections, after the French reputed seer of the 1500s.
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, it is expected to win.
The professor is yet to make a formal prediction, but told Newsweek this would come shortly after Labor day.
Though according to this system Kennedy exiting the race would strengthen the Democratic Party‘s chances of reelection (key four) – other pundits believe it would boost Trump’s campaign.
News site FiveThirtyEight founder and writer Nate Silver, who has quarreled online with Lichtman in the past, recently said that Kennedy’s withdrawal posed “a little bit of a downside risk” to Harris, as the independent was taking more votes from Trump than Harris.
State and national polls indicate that, when third party candidates are included, Kennedy is indeed taking more votes from Trump than his Democratic rival.
“Trump has a real incentive to get Kennedy out of the race,” professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio David B. Cohen previously told Newsweek.
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