Democrats Should Feel Good Going Into the DNC—but Not That Good | Opinion

A month ago, the Chicago convention felt like it was going to be an Irish wake. Now, as Democrats gather for their first in-person convention since 2016, it feels like an epic party.

The DNC this week will be an exuberant celebration of a party united and energized, leading in the polls and holding the most valuable thing any campaign can have—momentum.

Vice President Kamala Harris will take the stage on Thursday night having defied all the rules of politics and gravity. Over the last month, she reversed the death spiral of polling that showed Democrats up and down the ballot headed to almost certain defeat and now has the lead nationally and in key battleground states. She has barnstormed the country, attracting crowds reminiscent of the “Yes We Can” days of the 2008 Obama campaign. She has raised record sums of money and opened new paths to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. All while putting Donald Trump and the Republican Party on their heels, seemingly lost and without a message.

But Democrats should not get cocky or comfortable. Because things can, and often do, change, and quickly, in politics. Just ask former President Donald Trump.

When Donald Trump walked off his convention stage in Milwaukee, just over a month ago, he appeared to be on a glide path to winning a second term. It was Republicans who were united and energized. It was Republicans – fresh off the assassination attempt and Biden’s disastrous debate performance – who had the momentum. And it was Donald Trump who led in every national and swing state poll.

Once the balloons settle on the floor of the United Center on Thursday night, Kamala Harris and her running mate Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota are likely to get a “convention bounce” and build on their national and swing-state leads. But Democrats would be smart to heed the words of their newly minted vice presidential nominee and former high school football coach who said recently that “this is only halftime, and we’re a touchdown down.”

Never has our body politic received a shock like it has received over the last month. And how it will all shake out in the few short weeks remaining in the 2024 race is still very much to be determined. But a look back at the last two election cycles should sober up Democrats as they leave Chicago after four days of partying.

The last time Democrats gathered in person for a convention, Hillary Clinton left the convention in Philadelphia with an even bigger polling lead than Harris’ today. That lead continued to grow into the fall, and two weeks before Election Day, Clinton was up by an average 7 percent over Trump. And every Democrat remembers how that turned out.

And if looking back eight years is either too long ago or too traumatic for Democrats, they only need to look back four years ago. Two weeks before Election Day, Joe Biden was up by an average 9 percent over Trump. Biden would, of course, go on to win. But by a much narrower 4 percent and with just a narrow margin in the key swing states needed to put him over 270 in the Electoral College.

The last two election cycles highlight two truths Democrats should remember as we barrel toward the end of this historic race: The country is pretty evenly divided, and Trump, at least in the past, has proven to be an effective political closer.

Add in Republicans’ fairly significant structural Electoral College advantage, and Tim Walz’s advice to Democrats to “play like we’re a touchdown down” seems particularly sage.

None of this is to take away from the Herculean task that Kamala Harris has pulled off nearly perfectly over the last month. Nor is it to say that the Democrats are wrong to celebrate in Chicago this week. With early voting starting in less than a month, nearly every political scientist in the world would tell you they would rather be the Democrats than the Republicans heading into this home stretch.

But Democrats should not get comfortable. The election will tighten. And it will likely be very close.

And as the last month has shown us, anything can and likely will happen.

Doug Gordon is a Democratic strategist and co-founder of UpShift Strategies who has worked on numerous federal, state, and local campaigns and on Capitol Hill. He is on Twitter/X at @dgordon52.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.