The Mets are 3-7 on the runline against the Marlins this MLB season and the teams have split the first 10 meetings.
With that said, Roddery Munoz is amid an utterly miserable rookie year in Miami.
He’s a meatball machine who’s offering hitters an expected slugging percentage in the juiciest one percent of all pitchers — among other hitting metrics.
You’ve had a good chance of catching a souvenir if you’ve sat in the outfield for any of Munoz’s starts this season: Opposing bats have blasted 2.53 home runs per nine innings against the rookie who was thrust into the rotation to aid an ailing staff.
However, he has allowed just one run in 11 innings against the Mets in two starts this season.
Home-run hitting is the Mets’ forte on nights they are seeing their pitches; they rank No. 6 overall in long balls and are in the top 10 across the board in all major advanced hitting metrics, per Statcast.
Yes, New York has endured some inconsistencies since its last meeting with Miami in late July, but it is still producing, ranking No. 12 in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) since.
Sean Manaea is seeking redemption against Miami after allowing five earned runs in as many innings on July 19.
The right-hander has followed that loss with two 10-plus strikeout starts.
The Marlins both swing and chase pitches more than any other team in the game.
Matchup trends aside, Manaea and his trusty sinker have an optimal matchup at home here, so laying the runs is a worthwhile plus-money move.
THE PLAY: Mets -1.5 runs (-104, FanDuel)