Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell walks to the mound to make a pitching change during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday, July 24, 2024, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)
AP
One look at the National League standings and it’s easy to conclude Craig Counsell hasn’t done much to improve the Cubs this season.
There’s still time.
Getting swept in Cleveland obviously didn’t help the cause, but zoom out and the Cubs are trending well, going 8-5 since July 31.
Counsell has a history of finishing strong. From 2017-23 in Milwaukee, Counsell’s winning percentage after Aug. 1 was .580. The record does not include 2020, when the majority of the pandemic season took place after Aug. 1.
Four times in the last five years, the Brewers finished at least 9 games over .500 in the final two months, with the best record happening last season at 35-20.
Can a manager steer a team to a strong finish?
“I think the players control a lot of this,” Counsell said. “My job is to look at the next day, look a the next week, look at the next month, for sure. So you’re making decisions every day with that in mind. And I think every manager is.”
For the Cubs, it’s getting to the point where it’s now or never. Friday’s home game against Toronto kicks off a stretch of six straight series against teams below .500. After the Blue Jays, the Cubs host the Tigers, travel to Miami, Pittsburgh and Washington, then get the Pirates at home.
With 18 straight games against teams with a losing record, it seems like the Cubs need to go at least 12-6 to stay in contention for a wild-card spot.
In early September they’ll host the Yankees, then go on the road to face the Dodgers. After that there’s another chance to make a move. The Cubs have three games in Colorado, then face Oakland and Washington at home. The Nationals is a four-game series.
So the path is fairly obvious: Make a serious move over the next 18 games, then add a winning streak in mid-September and the Cubs might have a chance at the playoffs. Just don’t get swept by the Yankees, Dodgers or both.
That would be relatively close to the formula used by Arizona to reach the World Series last year. The Diamondbacks were 57-59 on Aug. 11, went on a hot streak, got swept by the Dodgers in late August, then started beating up on the Cubs in September. Arizona even finished the regular season with four straight losses but managed to finish 1 game ahead of the Cubs for the final wild-card spot.
The story of the Cubs season isn’t difficult to explain. They thought they had a solid closer in Adbert Alzolay, a nice second option in Hector Neris and a decent third option in Yency Almonte. Alzolay went 4-for-9 in save opportunities before going on the injured list, Almonte is also out for the year, and Neris had four blown saves before settling in. Take away 5 blown saves and the season wouldn’t seem that bad. Then every hitter on the team went in a slump during May and June.
The bullpen has since become a strength, but Cubs hitters rank just 22nd in OPS over the past month, so a strong finish is no sure thing.
But the third wild card could mean an interesting first-round series against the Brewers, so we’re saying there is a chance.
Local roundup:
MLB Pipeline re-ranked prospects this week and Downers Grove North graduate George Wolkow has moved all the way to No. 7 on the list of top White Sox minor-leaguers. The 6-foot-7, left-handed hitting outfielder has posted a .932 OPS in the second half of the season for Class A Kannapolis and is just 18. … Left-handed pitcher Noah Schultz from Oswego East is No. 1 for the White Sox and No. 15 in all of MLB. …
The signing deadline for 2024 MLB draft picks passed long ago, but a couple local signings we haven’t yet mentioned are Wauconda’s Cam Janik, a catcher at Illinois, signing with the Pirates for $120,000. Downers Grove North shortstop Jude Warwick decided to pass on college at Michigan State and signed with the Tigers for $247,500. No minor-league stats yet for either player.
Brewers records after Aug. 1 in full seasons under Craig Counsell, since 2017:
2023: 35-20
2022: 29-31
2021: 33-24
2019: 32-21
2018: 33-20
2017: 31-24
Total: 193-140, .580
Source: baseball-reference.com