Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff holds a clear lead in the race for California’s open Senate seat.
In a poll released Thursday by the University of California Berkeley, Schiff was backed by 53 percent of 3,765 Californians likely to vote in the November election. His Republican challenger, former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres star first baseman Steve Garvey, trailed by 20 points, earning 33 percent of the vote.
Respondents in the poll, which was conducted from July 31 to August 11, were largely aligned with their political party when selecting a Senate candidate. Out of registered Democrats, Schiff earned 84 percent of their support. Eighty-eight percent of registered Republicans indicated that they would prefer Garvey to take the open Senate slot.
Garvey was also backed by 88 percent of respondents who described themselves as “strongly conservative.” Schiff won 94 percent of Californians who said they are “strongly liberal.”
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images; Mario Tama/Getty Images
Mark DiCamillo, director of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies Poll, noted in a news release alongside the poll on Thursday that “because Democrats and liberals outnumber Republicans and conservatives in California by wide margins, this gives Schiff a considerable edge in the race.”
Thursday’s survey also found that among the top attributes that likely voters consider when deciding who to support in the fall was whether a candidate “would be a strong voice in defending abortion rights for women in the Senate.”
Fifty-five percent of respondents indicated that a candidate’s stance on abortion was important to their vote. Schiff, 64, is a vocal supporter of abortion access and has called to protect the procedure at the federal level. Garvey, 75, professional baseball star in the 1970s and ’80s, has said that he is personally against abortion but would “support the voice of the people of California” on the issue.
Californians also indicated in the UC Berkeley poll that 44 percent of likely voters are looking for a candidate who “supports tougher immigration laws.” Out of the respondents who indicated they were voting for Schiff, however, only 21 percent said that immigration policy is a top priority. In comparison, 84 percent of likely voters backing Garvey said that tougher immigration laws were essential.
When reached for comment on the UC Berkeley poll, Garvey’s campaign manager, Andy Gharakhani, told Newsweek over email, “For Adam Schiff to only be at 53% and to be losing in fundraising to Steve Garvey this last quarter, after decades in politics, is evidence enough that the momentum in this election is behind Steve Garvey.”
“While Adam Schiff has already spent tens of millions of dollars on advertising and is well defined with voters, Californians are listening to Steve Garvey with an open mind,” Gharakhani wrote. “Steve Garvey has yet to utilize his campaign war chest to communicate his message of commonsense, compassion, and consensus building directly to voters.”
Newsweek reached out to Schiff’s campaign for comment via email Thursday.
Schiff’s Senate run has looked relatively strong since he announced his bid to replace late California Senator Dianne Feinstein in January. FiveThirtyEight found Schiff to lead the once-congested race by over 5 percentage points on average March 5, the day of the primary. Garvey came in second, with 20.4 percent of the vote on average.
In California, the top two finishers of the Senate primary election advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. Schiff and Garvey beat out Democratic Representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee for the top two slots. Republican candidates James Bradley and Eric Early were also defeated during primaries.
In June, Real Clear Politics polling average showed Schiff leading by 20 percentage points over Garvey. A survey by the Public Policy Institute of California also found Schiff to hold a double-digit lead in a poll from May 23 to June 2, with Schiff winning 62 percent to 37 percent.
Update 08/15/24, 11:05 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Garvey’s campaign.