Young Jacksons show why patience is key with rookies

Before the 2024 season, four of the top 20 prospects, according to Baseball America, had one thing in common: Their first name.

Jackson Merrill, the Padres shortstop/outfielder, was ranked No. 17 and quickly made his presence felt by becoming an All-Star as a rookie.

Tigers righty Jackson Jobe has not yet pitched in the majors, but was the 20th-ranked prospect. The other two were ranked No. 1 (Jackson Holliday) and No. 2 (Jackson Chourio) overall, yet they didn’t have the same immediate impact as Merrill.

Chourio hit .210 with five homers, 16 RBIs, 20 runs, seven stolen bases and a .582 OPS over his first 50 games. He struck out 32 percent of the time and owned a 38.2 percent chase rate.

Despite stealing only one base, the 20-year-old raised his average from .210 to .243 in June after going 23-for-73 (.315) with four homers, 16 RBIs, 14 runs and a .897 OPS.

He struck out 17.5 percent of the time, a massive dip from his first two months.

Chourio remained steady through July, boosting his average to .262 after hitting .317 with three homers, 12 RBIs, 14 runs, four stolen bases and a .876 OPS.

His strikeout rate (13.6 percent) once again improved — a nearly 20 percent drop from March through May.

In his first six games this month, Chourio hit .433 with two homers (both of which he hit on Thursday), six RBIs, three stolen bases and a 1.102 OPS.

Since June 1, the rookie hit .335 with nine homers, 34 RBIs, 34 runs, eight stolen bases and a .921 OPS.

During that span, he had the fifth-best average, the 18th-best on-base percentage (.380), the 21st-best OPS and 22nd-best slugging percentage (.541) in the league.

He also had a 16.5 percent strikeout rate (half of what it was during his first two months) and a 32 percent chase rate, which was down 6.2 percent from the first 50 games of his season.

Chourio, who entered the weekend with a seven-game hit streak, is hitting .277 with 14 homers, 50 RBIs, 54 runs, 15 stolen bases and a .763 OPS.

He has a 21.4 percent strikeout rate, 6.1 percent walk rate and a 32.4 percent chase rate, which, for comparison sake, is almost 5 percent lower than Merrill.

There’s a reason the Brewers gave Chourio, who’s been hitting atop Milwaukee’s lineup, an eight-year, $82 million deal before he ever played a game in the majors — and we’ve been seeing a big reason why for the past two-plus months (even if his BaBIP indicates some luck).

Betting on Baseball?

That’s why it’s hard to believe the red-hot outfielder remains available in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues. He should be rostered (especially in dynasty leagues).

The Orioles’ Jackson, however, was the most added player in ESPN leagues this week, and is now 60 percent rostered — quite the turnaround from how his career began after his April call up.

In his first 10 games, Holliday went 2-for-34 (.059) with one RBI, five runs and a .170 OPS. He looked overmatched while striking out in half his at-bats before returning to the minors.

Those days seem to be behind the top pick in the 2022 draft pick.

In his first eight games since being recalled on July 31, he hit 9-for-28 (.321) with four home runs, 11 RBIs, eight runs and a 1.173 OPS.

He scored a run in each of those games and drove in at least one run in seven of them.

There’s a reason Holliday was almost universally considered the top prospect in the game — and he’ll get the chance show off all his tools (he has great speed) down the stretch.

Sometimes it takes time for youngsters, even those considered to be elite, to adjust to the majors.

Big hits

Matt Chapman 3B, Giants

Smashed six homers over his past 15 games before Friday while hitting .362 with 14 RBIs, 13 runs and a 1.206 OPS.

Bryan Woo SP, Mariners

Allowed more than three ERs just once in 13 starts, and is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA, .205 opponents average and two walks in his past four starts.

Kyle Schwarber OF, Phillies

In his first 19 games since the All-Star break, he hit .329 with eight homers, 19 RBIs, 15 runs and a 1.210 OPS. He entered Friday on an eight-game hit streak, hitting .469 with five homers in that span.

Luis Gil SP, Yankees

Won three of his past four decisions while maintaining a 2.11 ERA, .203 opponents average and an 11-percent swinging strike rate.

Big whiffs

Brice Turang 2B/SS, Brewers

Entered July hitting .292, but his average dropped to .259 after hitting .174 with 20 strikeouts and a .422 OPS in 29 games before Friday.

Kutter Crawford SP, Red Sox

Went 1-2 with a 10.61 ERA with 13 homers allowed, .313 opponents average and 1.184 OPS in four starts since the All-Star break.

Jeremy Peña SS, Astros

Entered Friday with four hits, one of which was an extra-base hit, in his previous 38 at-bats (.105) with 13 strikeouts and a .322 OPS.

Nestor Cortes SP, Yankees

Allowed at least one home run in each of his past eight starts while going 1-5 with a 6.86 ERA, .309 opponents average and .943 OPS. He had a 5.68 ERA with 13 homers allowed over his last 12 starts.

Check swings

– Eduardo Rodriguez picked up the win in his season debut against Cleveland, but allowed two homers and struck out only one. His second matchup should be easier at home against a Rockies team that entered Friday hitting .219 on the road with 618 strikeouts, the most in the league.

– After hitting .225 with 10 homers, 35 RBIs and a .635 OPS in the first half, Jake Burger has hit .293 with nine homers, 14 RBIs and a 1.071 in his first 20 games since the break. He’s hitting .286 with 12 homers and a .979 OPS since July 2.

– Though Yusei Kikuchi walked 4.9 per nine innings in his first two starts with Houston, he struck out 15.5 per nine. Four of his next six probable starts come against teams that have struck out the most in the majors — the Rays (7th most), Red Sox (3rd), Reds (8th) and A’s (4th).

– Vinnie Pasquantino entered Friday with at least one RBI in eight of his previous nine games, going 14-for-39 (.359) with six homers, 17 RBIs, eight runs, one stolen base and a 1.221 OPS.

– Seth Lugo was 11-3 with a 2.21 ERA and .218 opponents average over his first 19 starts, allowing more than three earned runs just three times in that span. Over his last five starts, he’s allowed four earned runs or more three times and owns a 4.54 ERA.

– Ben Joyce, who picked up his first save for the Angels on Aug. 3, has allowed one earned run in 19 appearances. Opponents are hitting .117 with a 12 percent swinging strike rate in that span, and his four-seamer averages 101.9 mph. He’s available in almost 90 percent of ESPN leagues.

– Paul Blackburn (11.3 percent rostered) is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 9.0 strikeouts per nine in his first two starts with the Mets. Though he isn’t known as a strikeout pitcher, his next two probable opponents (Athletics and Marlins) are among the worst hitting teams that tend to strike out a lot, especially Oakland (his former team). He should be a solid streaming option.