Russia’s response to the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk border region is creating disorganization in its ranks and presenting “vulnerabilities” to Kyiv’s troops, according to new analysis.
Moscow is leaning on Russian military conscripts already in Kursk, as well as fighters pulled from less-intense areas of the front line and units from its northern group of forces to defend Kursk, “likely exacerbating the disorganization” of Russia’s response to the Ukrainian push, the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Saturday.
Russia’s northern group of forces have been deployed close to the border, including around Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region into which Moscow launched an offensive earlier this year.
Kyiv began a surprise cross-border push from its northeastern Sumy region into Kursk early local time on Tuesday. Raids from Ukraine into Russia have been previously claimed by Kyiv-aligned Russian groups, but this is the first time regular troops have mounted such an operation.
Russia quickly transferred reinforcements to the border, including from other locations inside Ukraine.
The Kursk region’s acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, declared a state of emergency on Wednesday, and by Saturday, more than 76,000 people had been evacuated, according to the Russian government.
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Moscow has also launched a “counter-terrorism operation” in several border regions as part of efforts to beat back Ukrainian troops, led by the Federal Security Service (FSB). The agency is the principal successor of the Soviet-era KGB.
The agency will work alongside numerous other organizations, including Russia’s army, its internal affairs ministry and the national guard, the ISW noted on Saturday. Reports have also suggested Chechen special forces are among the forces fighting Ukraine in Kursk.
A “complicated” command structure involving the FSB and the other forces dealing with Ukraine’s incursion “may degrade the effectiveness of the Russian response,” the ISW assessed. “There will likely be friction and bureaucratic obstacles between the FSB and other structures.”
Russia looks to be avoiding pulling many fighters from forces critical for its slow but steady advances east of the Donetsk settlements of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, the ISW said. The front lines around these two strategic cities have been hotspots of fighting in recent weeks.
If Moscow opts to keep the fighters currently in Kursk in the region in the short- to medium-term, it will likely make command-chain problems worse, the ISW added.
“These decisions can present vulnerabilities and opportunities that Ukrainian forces can exploit,” the think tank said.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.
Ukraine has largely avoided confirming any details around the Kursk operation, only vaguely alluding to the incursion for several days.
But on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to directly reference the push into Russian territory for the first time, describing conversations with Kyiv’s army chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, about “actions to push the war out into the aggressor’s territory.”
Ukraine’s exact objectives with the Kursk incursion are not clear, but Russia has already been forced to divert resources to the area.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said early on Sunday that its air defenses had destroyed 14 drones and four Tochka-U tactical missiles over the border Kursk region.
A downed Ukrainian missile fell on a multistory building in the city of Kursk overnight, injuring 13 people, Smirov said. In a separate statement carried by Russian state media on Sunday, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said 69 people who were injured in shelling on the Kursk region were being treated in hospital.