The Fire have bowed out of the Leagues Cup, losing in the group stage to Sporting Kansas City and Mexican club Deportivo Toluca. With the nascent tournament out of the way, the Fire can think about trying to overturn a three-point deficit to reach the MLS playoffs for the first time since 2017.
There is actually reason to think the Fire (6-12-7, 25 points) can do it. Of course, since this is the Fire, there’s also ample evidence their season will end at the final whistle of the Oct. 19 regular-season finale against Nashville.
Why they can make the playoffs
The race for the ninth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference is muddy.
Ninth-place Atlanta is averaging only 1.12 points per match and on pace to compile just 38 this year. With 10th-place Philadelphia and 12th-place Nashville sputtering to two of the league’s most disappointing seasons, the bottom half of the conference is there for the Fire to pass, and a surge could be enough for the Fire to overtake the teams in front of them and ascend to ninth.
In some ways, the schedule could help the Fire. They return to league play Aug. 24 at fifth-place New York City, which is hosting the match at Citi Field. Though that game will be difficult because of NYCFC’s strength and the odd field size required by playing at a baseball park, the fixture list loosens up.
Following the match in Queens, the Fire open a three-game homestand Aug. 31 against Inter Miami (and potentially Lionel Messi) before hosting D.C. United and the Red Bulls. D.C. United is the lone team of those three to currently sit outside of playoff positioning, but three games at home are still three games at home.
The Fire also end the season with two of their last three at home, playing 8th-place Toronto FC and Nashville. Neither match should be looked at as unwinnable, especially if the Fire are in contention and motivated.
Why they can’t make the playoffs
Despite being only three points out of ninth place, the math doesn’t work for the Fire, which is shown by their 10% chance to make the postseason per PlayoffStatus.com.
To leap up to ninth from where they are now, the Fire must jump over five teams in their remaining nine games and miss next to no opportunities for victories. They have to pick up points and hope for help, wishing that a team in front of them doesn’t get hot.
To one-up Atlanta’s 38-point pace, the Fire need 14 points over the final nine matches. That rate of 1.55 points per game rounds up to 53 over a full 34-game season; last year, only seven MLS teams collected 53 or more points. Since 2010, the Fire have compiled 53 or more points in just 2012 and 2017.
Then there are the reasons the Fire find themselves one spot out of last in the East. Their 30 goals are tied with Charlotte for the fourth-least in the league, and their minus-12 goal differential is ahead of only seven clubs. Their home form also has been patchy, adding up to a 4-5-3 record at Soldier Field.