With one game getting postponed due to rain yesterday, we actually have a 16-game MLB betting slate for today, with the first game starting around 1 p.m. ET.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into our favorite MLB player props for today, specifically diving into the MLB home run betting market.
Juan Soto Home Run (+320) FanDuel
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees, 1:05 p.m. ET
This is a beautiful matchup for Soto to go yard today for a lot of reasons. For starters, between the weather, the stadium and the pitching, this is the most home run-friendly game of the day, from both sides of the ball. We like Soto as our official pick, but you could not go wrong with a lot of guys on either team.
This is the best game of the day specifically from a home run and weather perspective, with it being hot and humid in New York (which helps with carry), and winds blowing out of the stadium. That, coupled with the Yankees short outfield, makes it a very positive script for home runs. As for Soto, he has been red-hot at the plate recently and he gets a great matchup against Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers.
Eovaldi struggles with allowing home runs to left-handed hitters, and in general, his stats are worse across the board against lefties. For the season, his HR/9 against LHH is 1.54, up from 1.12 HR/9 against RHH, and he has been much worse recently, with a HR/9 of 2.70 over his last 10 starts against left-handed hitters.
Despite only hitting one home run in his last 10 games, Soto has still been great at the plate, with a 21.2% barrel rate, 57.6% HardHit rate and 95.5 mph average exit velocity. For reference, that would be the third-best barrel rate, sixth-best HardHit rate and third-fastest average exit velocity if extrapolated out to the entire season.
Lastly, Soto crushes fastballs, as 4-seam fastballs are his best pitch to hit for power, by far. His ISO rate against 4-seamers is .418 on the season, which is his highest against any single pitch. Eovaldi, meanwhile, throws fastballs as his most frequent pitch. Soto should be able to take him yard today.
Manny Machado Home Run (+475) Fanatics
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins, 4:10 p.m. ET
For this one, we are targeting a pitching in Roddery Munoz who is among the worst in baseball at allowing batters to hit home runs. It is a match made in heaven for Manny Machado, and he’s not the only Padres hitter we’re targeting today.
To stick with Munoz here, he has been a full-time starter for the Marlins since June 8, and his HR/9 in 10 starts since that date is a horrible 2.50, the second-worst HR/9 since June 8.
In that stretch, he is allowing the seventh-highest HardHit rate at 44.5%, the third-highest barrel rate at 12.1%, the 27th-highest launch angle at 16 degrees and the third-fastest average exit velocity. Not only is he allowing batters to hit the tar off the ball, but he is also allowing them to put the ball in the air, which explains why he has allowed so many home runs this season.
Machado, meanwhile, just went yard two games ago and has been on fire at the plate. He has a combined 13 HardHits in his last five games, and he is tied with the second-most HardHit line-drives + fly-balls over the past 14 days with 17 total. Fingers crossed he stays hot and goes yard today.
Jackson Merrill Home Run (+680) Fanatics
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins, 4:10 p.m. ET
As for Merrill, he did just hit a home run yesterday, but he has shown the ability to go on a home run binge in the past, so there is no fear backing him once again today. He had a stretch from June 12 to June 19 where he hit an absurd nine home runs, and four separate times in that stretch, he went yard in back-to-back games.
He did go on a cold spell after June 19, but it appears he is coming out of that with four home runs in his last nine games, including three in his last three games.
One thing that we have not yet mentioned about Munoz, the Marlins’ starting pitcher tonight, is that he is significantly worse against left-handed hitters. To be clear, he struggles against both righties and lefties alike, he just struggles more against lefties.
13 of the 21 home runs Munoz has allowed have come against LHH, with a HR/9 of 3.99 on the season against lefties. That is, by far, the worst HR/9 against lefties of all pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings against left-handed hitters. That, coupled with a hot batter in Merrill, hopefully means that the San Diego outfielder is able to hit one out of the park.
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