Minnesota Governor Tim Walz briefly became the favorite to be the Democrats‘ 2024 vice-presidential nominee on Tuesday morning, according to a prominent betting website.
At 3:30 a.m. ET, PredictIt was selling $1 bets on Walz being the vice-presidential nominee for 54¢, against 43¢ for Governor Josh Shapiro, 4¢ for Governor Andy Beshear, 3¢ for Senator Mark Kelly and 1¢ for Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Each PredictIt bet sells for between 1¢ and 99¢ depending on its probability, with the customer then getting $1 if the answer they guess is correct.
However, as of 5 a.m. ET, Shapiro had retaken the lead on the platform, with a bet on the Pennsylvania governor completing the 2024 Democratic Party ticket selling at 53¢ ahead of Walz on 50¢, Beshear and Kelly with 3¢ each, and 1¢ for Buttigieg. The PredictIt website is run out of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.
There has been widespread speculation over who Harris would pick as her running mate since she became the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee shortly after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed her. On August 5, Politico reported Harris will announce her vice-presidential selection on Tuesday ahead of a rally she is due to attend in Philadelphia in the evening.
At 5 a.m. ET on Tuesday, U.K.-based bookmaker William Hill offered odds of 8/11 (57.9 percent) on Shapiro being the 2024 Democratic vice-presidential nominee, ahead of Walz on 47.6 percent with no other candidate on more than three percent. Separately, betting website Betfair gave odds of 1/2 (66.7 percent) on Shapiro being picked, with Walz in second place on 11/8 (42.1 percent).
Newsweek contacted Governor Walz’s press office and representatives of Vice President Kamala Harris for comment on Tuesday by email outside of regular office hours.
Reuters on Monday reported that Harris had narrowed her vice-presidential shortlist down to just two candidates, Governors Walz and Shapiro.
In a message to supporters, urging them to sign up so they would receive her VP announcement, Harris on Monday said she hadn’t made her final decision. She said: “I know many of you are eager to find out who I will be selecting to join me on the campaign trail, and hopefully in the White House, as my Vice President.
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“Though I have not made my decision yet, it is important to me that grassroots supporters—like you—have direct updates about the state of the race.”
Speaking to Newsweek, Thomas Gift, a political scientist who heads the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, U.K., said selecting Shapiro as her running mate would put the key swing state of Pennsylvania “in play” for Harris.
He said: “While most polling has shown Trump leading Pennsylvania by a nontrivial margin, Harris picking Shapiro puts PA’s 19 electoral votes in play—pure and simple…Even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, selecting Shapiro would force him to expend significantly more resources in the Keystone State to do it, siphoning off valuable cash and energy from other battleground states.”
A poll of 1,510 likely voters conducted between August 2 and 4 by SurveyUSA gave Harris a three-point lead over Trump on national vote share, with 48 percent versus 45 percent.