Neither the threat of wildfires nor catastrophic flooding have kept thousands of Americans from migrating to locations in Texas and Florida where extreme weather-related disasters are causing increasing damage year after year.
Between July 2022 and July 2023, nearly 69,000 people bought homes in frequent-flood counties in the Sunshine State — including Brevard, Manatee and Lee — according to a new analysis from Redfin. Another roughly 24,000 Americans became new residents in the heaviest flood-risk areas of Texas during that same time period — including in Brazoria and Fort Bend counties — the online real estate brokerage said.
The inflow of new residents is happening as former residents are fleeing.
“Ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of risky areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate change isn’t the top concern,” Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa said in the report.
Part-time paradise at a steep price
Depending on where they move in the state, new residents in danger-prone areas in Florida should expect to find themselves in the path of a hurricane or other types of severe storms.
Most recently, Hurricane Debby, the fourth-named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall on Monday near Steinhatchee, a tiny community in northern Florida with less than 1,000 residents. The hurricane so far has left nearly 300,000 Floridians without power, before being downgraded to a tropical storm.
Moving to Florida and Texas will also likely mean higher homeowners insurance for new residents, as natural disasters have caused insurance companies to raise annual rates for coverage.
Homeowners insurance rates have climbed 15% and 36% in Florida and Texas, respectively, between 2022 and 2023, according to data from S&P Global. One resident in Orlando, Florida, told CBS News in June that his home insurance grew to $6,000 from $1,500 a year for a 2024 policy.
Asked by clients how much they will pay for homeowners insurance in Florida, Rafael Corrales, a Redfin real estate agent based in Miami, said he tells prospective homebuyers that it all depends on how close they want to be to the coast.
“If you’re looking to buy a home in Florida, you should know that you can’t be close to the water without being in a flood zone,” Corrales said in a statement. “If you’re within three miles of the coastline, Mother Nature is going to pay you a visit,” he said, adding, “That’s the price you pay for living in paradise.”
From one wildfire state to another
Counties with a high risk of wildfires also saw an influx in new residents, with 63,365 more people entering high-fire-risk states in 2023 than the number of those leaving, according to Redfin.
Leading the trend is Texas.
About 35,000 new residents migrated into wildfire-endangered areas of Texas — including Grayson, Hunt, Midland, Parker and Wise counties, the Redfin analysis shows. That contrasts with the approximately 17,357 Americans who have fled wildfire-prone counties in California — including Lassen, Solano and Napa. The exodus of California residents marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State.
Texas has large swaths of undeveloped land that’s near developed land, making some parts of the state especially vulnerable to wildfires, Redfin noted. The Lone Star State had the second-largest number of wildfires last year — 7,102 — second only to California’s 7,364, Redfin said. One reason for the migration from one high-fire-risk area to another, according to the report, is cost of living.
“For a lot of Americans, things like cost of living and proximity to family take precedence over catastrophe risk, which can feel less immediate and more abstract,” Redfin’s de la Campa said. “But the cost-benefit calculus seems to be shifting in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and an uptick in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national news.”