Group of 5 College Football Preview: Which Teams Have Best CFP Shot?

The upcoming college football season marks a historic year for fans of teams in the Group of Five (G5) conferences: Conference USA, American, Sun Belt, Mountain West and MAC.

After decades of knowing that not even an undefeated season would be enough for a berth in the College Football Playoff — the 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats are the only G5 team to ever reach the CFP — college football’s new 12-team playoff format will include an automatic spot for the highest-ranked team of the five G5 conference champs in 2024.

Heavy C-USA favorite Liberty has the shortest odds to reach the expanded CFP, but oddsmakers consider several other teams contenders, including three from the AAC, two from the Mountain West and two from the Sun Belt.

Whoever wins the MAC — whose preseason favorites are Miami (Ohio) and Toledo — does not have a realistic chance at making this year’s CFP, according to most sportsbooks.

It’s worth noting, though, that while DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM all list both Toledo and Miami (Ohio) at +2000 or longer, Caesars lists both those teams at +1200.

CFP Odds for Top Group of Five Contenders

Below are the odds, as of July 22, for the eight G5 teams with the best chance at a CFP berth.

Based on the odds in the table above, the G5 spot in the 2024 CFP will come down to a battle between Liberty, Boise State and Memphis.

The Liberty Flames have the shortest odds of those three thanks in large part to an extremely favorable schedule, but the Broncos and Tigers appear to have legit CFP shots of their own.

Liberty — Best CFP Odds: +470 (FanDuel)

Liberty football has quickly become a fixture among the Group of Five programs since its inaugural season back in 2018. The Flames won at least eight games in four straight seasons from 2019-22 under now-Auburn coach Hugh Freeze, and they are coming off an impressive 2023 campaign under Jamey Chadwell.

Last year, Liberty went 13-1 in its first season under the former Coastal Carolina coach, with its only loss coming to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. The 2024 squad returns stars at QB and RB in Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley. They should have no trouble lighting up opposing defenses, just like last year, when they helped Liberty average over 38 points per game.

How much the defense improves after welcoming a number of transfers this offseason will probably decide whether Liberty can merely reach the CFP or actually challenge a top-10 opponent in such a matchup.

Liberty’s non-conference trip to Sun Belt foe Appalachian State on September 28 looks like the toughest game on the Flames’ 2024 regular-season schedule.

Boise State — Best CFP Odds: +500 (BetMGM)

AAC favorite Memphis has gotten more buzz (at least on the East Coast), but it’s Boise State that boasts the next-shortest odds to make the CFP after Liberty.

One of the more underrated players in the country entering this season is Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty, who totaled 19 TDs (14 rushing, five receiving) and 1,916 yards from scrimmage (1,347 rushing, 569 receiving) in 2023.

The 2023 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year was a big reason Boise State bounced back from a 3-4 start to the season to finish 8-6 (6-2 Mt. West) and win its league with a 44-20 beatdown of UNLV in the conference title game.

Boise’s strong finish a year ago came after it fired coach Andy Avalos in November, with the team at 5-5 on the season. Longtime Boise assistant Spencer Danielson led Boise to a 3-1 record the rest of the way, and the 35-year-old was rewarded with the full-time job a day after the MWC Championship win over UNLV.

A year after taking on Washington, UCF and Memphis in non-conference play, the Broncos once again have a tough schedule outside the Mountain West in 2024. The slate includes an early-season trip to Oregon, plus home games against former Pac-12 teams Washington State and Oregon State.

With former USC quarterback Malachi Nelson leading an experienced roster coming off a strong finish under a then-interim coach, the Broncos look like a legitimate threat to Liberty.

Memphis — Best CFP Odds: +700 (DraftKings)

As mentioned in our look at the top darkhorse contenders to reach the CFP, Memphis should be a handful in the AAC.

Like Boise State, Memphis has a chance to separate itself from the pack early, as it visits Florida State on September 14. An upset in Tallahassee by Memphis (and/or a hypothetical Boise State win over Oregon) would deal a massive early blow to G5 CFP favorite Liberty’s playoff hopes.

But even if Memphis comes up short against the Seminoles, it could have a compelling case for a higher end-of-season ranking than Liberty if it all comes together for coach Ryan Silverfield’s team.

If UTSA (9-4 in 2023) and/or Tulane (11-3 in ’23) live up to expectations and Memphis manages to win the AAC — with wins over those schools, and its only loss coming on the road against Florida State — the Tigers could absolutely earn a CFP bid at Liberty’s expense, even if the Flames are undefeated.

That’s quite a few ifs, but with an offense that boasts All-AAC-caliber players at QB (Seth Henigan), WR (Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee) and RB (Mario Anderson), it’s all within reach for Silverfield and Co.

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