Donald Trump’s Chances of Beating Biden in Nevada, According to Polls

President Joe Biden is heading to Nevada on Monday—a battleground state where he’s trailing former President Donald Trump amid this year’s presidential election, according to the latest polls.

Biden, who is expected to arrive in Las Vegas on Monday night, will speak at the 115th NAACP’s National Convention and discuss his administrations commitment “to advancing racial justice and equity for all Americans, including Black Americans,” the White House announced last week. On Wednesday, Biden will deliver remarks at the UnidosUS Annual Conference in Las Vegas.

Biden’s trip to Nevada comes after Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, was the target of an assassination attempt on Saturday evening during his campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Trump was speaking at the rally when he was shot on stage, with a bullet hitting the upper part of his right ear. The suspected gunman, identified by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, was shot and killed by the Secret Service. A rally attendee, 50-year-old former firefighter Corey Comperatore was also killed during the incident. Those injured, identified as 57-year-old David Dutch of New Kensington, Pennsylvania, and 74-year-old James Copenhaver of Moon Township, Pennsylvania, are in stable condition.

A spokesperson for Trump’s campaign said on Saturday that the former president was “fine” and was “being checked out at a local medical facility.” Trump was released from the hospital later that night.

Meanwhile, Biden is looking to shore up support in the battleground state where polls show Trump could win in November. Republicans have not won Nevada in a presidential race since former President George W. Bush did so in 2000 and 2004.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Trump up by 4.7 percentage points against Biden (43.3 percent to 38.6 percent) as of Monday afternoon.

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll, which was conducted between July 1 and 4 and surveyed 452 registered voters, found Trump was leading Biden in Nevada by three percentage points, 48 to 45 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

An Emerson College survey, which was conducted between June 30 and July 2 and surveyed 1,000 individuals, found Trump was ahead of the president in the state by 6 percentage points, 47 to 41 percent. The margin of error for that survey is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The most recent polls do not reflect the impact on voters after the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday. However, they were conducted after Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27, which sparked panic among Democrats about Biden’s age and ability to beat Trump in November. Trump, 78, is only three years younger than Biden and has also faced scrutiny about his age and cognitive ability.

Saturday’s shooting has upended the race once again, with some concerned that the assassination attempt has increased Trump’s chances of winning.

“The assassination attempt cements Trump’s lead,” Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic consultant, previously told Newsweek. “That’s the problem Biden faces. How do you compare yourself to a martyr? Because that’s the way Republicans will portray Trump.”

Sheinkopf added that going after Trump right now would backfire on Biden, however others said the president needs to go back on the offensive to avoid falling further behind.

Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s and Biden’s campaign via email for comment on Monday afternoon.

In a primetime national address from the Oval Office on Sunday evening, Biden urged Americans to reject political violence.

“There is no place in America for this kind of violence or for any violence for that matter,” he said. “Period. No exceptions. We can’t allow this violence to be normalized.”