For the better part of four decades, Democrats in New York could count on their presidential candidate to run up the score every four years, helping them boost turnout in key congressional, state and local races down the ballot.
This year, they might be wise to come up with a Plan B.
Even before President Joe Biden’s uneven performance in Thursday’s presidential debate, a string of recent polls had shown him with a 7-to-10-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the Empire State, a relative pittance given the state’s 2-to-1 Democratic enrollment edge. Just four years ago, Biden beat Trump by 23 points.
The polls put Biden on track for the smallest margin of victory a Democratic presidential candidate has seized in New York since 1988, when Michael Dukakis edged out George H.W. Bush by only four percentage points.
And on Thursday, a nationally televised debate sent party loyalists spiraling over Biden’s performance.
“There is no question that if I am a Democrat running in a competitive congressional or legislative race, I am concerned about the top of the ticket,” Steve Greenberg, a Siena College pollster, said Friday morning. “But we still have more than four months to go until election day, which is a lifetime — many lifetimes — in the political world.”
The trickle-down effect could have nationwide implications. Polls show Biden trailing Trump in the New York City suburbs, where a handful of competitive congressional races could decide which party controls the House of Representatives, much like they did when Republicans won a slim majority in 2022.
The most recent New York poll, from Siena College this month, showed Biden with a 47-39% edge, similar to the seven-point advantage he had in a May poll from Emerson College.
Neither of them were an outlier. Since February, polls of New York voters have shown the gap between Biden and Trump slowly but steadily shrinking.
Ahead of the president’s appearance at Stonewall in the West Village on Friday, New Yorkers told Gothamist they’re concerned about Biden’s viability.
“Nobody in that ticket should be running again. They’re poison as far as many voters are concerned — Democrats, independents, and certainly moderate Republicans who might not like Trump,” said Mark Smith, who lives in Williamsburg. “I think it’s time to shake it up with a Gavin Newsom or somebody else.”
Independent voters — who make up about a quarter of all voters statewide — and suburban voters strongly supported Trump in the most recent Siena poll, a particular sign of hope for Republican congressional candidates in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island.
Top Republicans say that’s part of an ongoing New York trend.
In 2022, former Rep. Lee Zeldin, a Long Island Republican, lost by less than six points to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. The strong showing by Zeldin helped boost the GOP down the ticket, with Republicans picking up the handful of key congressional seats that helped them take the House majority.
In an interview with Gothamist, Zeldin said he believes the race between Biden and Trump is even closer than polls have shown, in part because Siena hasn’t included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in their poll questions.
Zeldin acknowledged it’s a “difficult, uphill battle” for any Republican to win a statewide race in New York, which hasn’t happened since Gov. George Pataki won reelection in 2002. But if Trump outperforms Biden in the suburbs, it would be a boon for his party, Zeldin said.
“For targeted House seats in the suburbs and around the rest of the state, these aren’t races that Joe Biden is up by mid-single-digits in,” Zeldin said. “In those districts, Joe Biden is down and that bodes well for the efforts to help the Republican candidates for House.”
Among the marginal House seats up for grabs in New York are those held by Republicans Anthony D’Esposito on Long Island and Michael Lawler and Marc Molinaro in the Hudson Valley. All three are rated “toss ups” by the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan organization that rates congressional districts based on how likely they are to be won by one party or the other.
Lawler — whose district includes all or part of Rockland, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties — is facing a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, while Molinaro is facing lawyer Josh Riley and D’Esposito will square off with former Nassau County Executive Laura Gillen.
Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to flip the Hudson Valley seat held by Democrat Pat Ryan. He’s facing a challenge from Republican Alison Esposito, a former NYPD deputy inspector who was Zeldin’s running mate in 2022.
Before the debate Thursday, Democratic Committee Chair Jay Jacobs said he expected the New York polls to move in Biden’s direction as Election Day gets closer, and Democrats get more of a chance to tout his accomplishments — things like the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. After the debate he remained cautiously optimistic.
“It’s foolish in an election not to ever be worried,” Jacobs said the morning after. “I will say this: There’s no disputing that Joe Biden is old. But there’s also no disputing that Joe Biden has been one of the most effective and consequential presidents in history.”
But he admitted his fellow Democrats had fresh cause to wring their hands.
“I know there’s a lot of nervousness from Democrats in particular, but I think everybody’s just got to take a deep breath, sit back and you know, not jump the gun on seeing doom and gloom,” Jacobs said.
Ed Cox, chair of the state GOP, sees it differently.
Biden, he said, is a liability — and New York Republicans stand ready to take advantage.
“My general view is that we’re going to have a very good year here in New York,” he said. “And possibly Trump could win New York.”
The last Republican presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan, who did it in 1980 and 1984.
Brittany Kriegstein contributed reporting.