After President Joe Biden‘s performance during Thursday’s debate against former President Donald Trump, Democrats like Michelle Obama are gaining popularity as potential replacements as the party’s nominee less than two months before its convention.
Biden, who would be 82 years old at his hypothetical inauguration, failed to subside concerns about his vitality and mental acuity during the debate. He appeared bewildered at times and stumbled over responses, with Trump ridiculing Biden at one point for an unintelligible answer to a question about immigration and border security.
With the president unable to take advantage of Trump’s presidential and criminal records, his age remains a top issue for voters. A March New York Times poll found that 61 percent of his 2020 voters now think he is “just too old” for another term.
Democratic names floated as potential last-minute replacements as the party’s nominee have included Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and former first lady Michelle Obama.
Gaming platform BetOnline.ag was adjusting 2024 election odds in real time on Thursday evening, noting that Trump started as a -150 favorite and improved his odds to -175 by the end of the night. Meanwhile, Biden’s odds fell from +130 to +300 (or 3/1).
As viewers watched the debate, the odds for Newsom, Obama, and Harris also increased. This is how betting movements altered before and following the debate:
- Newsom’s odds went from 25/1 to 7/1
- Obama’s odds went from 22/1 to 16/1
- Harris’ odds went from 40/1 to 20/1
“We just kept taking bets over and over again on Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama,” BetOnline political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty told Newsweek.
Head-to-head matchups also show encouraging results for Newsom and Obama. Newsom’s odds are -140 against Trump (+100), and Obama is -250 against Trump (+170).
“As you can see from the head-to-head matchups we’re offering now, we believe Michelle Obama has the best chance to beat Donald Trump in this election,” Krishnamurty said. “Our professional bettors have been backing Obama for the last few months.
“She was as high as 25/1 in early May, and they’ve continued to bet her all the way down to the current odds of 7/1. Obama would be a massive loss for the book if she were elected.”
Jean Catuffe/GC Images
As of 11:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, these were the 2024 election odds on BetOnline:
- Donald Trump -175 (4/7)
- Joe Biden +300 (3/1)
- Gavin Newsom +700 (7/1)
- Michelle Obama +1600 (16/1)
- Kamala Harris +2000 (20/1)
- Hillary Clinton +4000 (40/1)
- Gretchen Whitmer +5000 (50/1)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +5000 (50/1)
- Nikki Haley +9000 (90/1)
- Ron DeSantis +20000 (200/1)
- Mark Cuban +35000 (350/1)
- Jamie Dimon +40000 (400/1)
- Liz Cheney +50000 (500/1)
Biden’s stock is also falling among other oddsmakers.
On Thursday, before the debate, Bet365 gave Biden a 13/8 (38.1 percent) chance of winning November’s election, but this slumped to 10/3 (23.1 percent) as of 3 a.m. ET on Friday, according to betting website Oddschecker.
Over the same period, Biden’s odds of victory slumped from 13/8 (38.1 percent) to 3/1 (25 percent) with Sky Bet, 15/8 (34.8 percent) to 3/1 (25 percent) with William Hill and 13/8 (38.1 percent) to 7/2 (22.2 percent) with Betfair.
Michelle Obama is a name that Republicans have continually mentioned in the lead-up to this year’s election.
After last night’s debate, Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas doubled down on a previous prognostication.
“Watching Biden’s excruciating debate performance tonight, I believe the odds are now greater than 80% that the Dems dump Biden,” Cruz said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “Nine months ago, on Verdict, I predicted that the Dems would replace Biden with Michelle Obama. I think that’s going to happen.”
Obama has fended off speculation about her entering the political arena.
“As former first lady, Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president,” Obama’s office told NBC News in March. “Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ reelection campaign.”
A spokesperson for Obama told Newsweek that the statement from March still stands.
Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics expert and associate professor at the University of Surrey, Guildford, in the United Kingdom, told Newsweek on Friday that the debate didn’t quell concerns but intensified them.
“This is the most delicate and potentially dangerous time in modern Democratic Party history,” Shanahan said. “Before the debate, I would have said Biden was 100 percent certain to contest the 2024 election and that no other Democrat would challenge that right.
“However, after last night’s hesitant, flat performance, Biden can’t possibly have more than a 50/50 chance of making the matchup in November.”
But replacing Biden comes with a lot of baggage, Shanahan warned. It is a “delicate” prospect to replace the incumbent president, notably ahead of a convention this August in Chicago, where he most likely will have enough delegates.
“Essentially, no change can be made unless Biden chooses to make it,” he said. “That’s no longer in the realms of fantasy. If he does, there’s no formal mechanism for him to define who takes his place, and one can expect some intense and robust debate behind the scenes before any new ticket is announced.
“It really would need to be agreed between all the major players in private and presented before well the convention takes place as the best-possible course to retain the White House and protect down-ballot seats against Trump and the GOP…If Biden is to act, it’s better for all if he acts sooner rather than later.”
Harris’ popularity has also wavered since leaving the U.S. Senate to become Biden’s vice president.
She engaged in a tumultuous post-debate interview with CNN‘s Anderson Cooper, first agreeing that the president had a “slow start” before defending his record.
“What we saw tonight was the president making a very clear contrast with Donald Trump on all the issues that matter to the American people. Yes, there was a slow start, but it was a strong finish,” Harris said. “What became very clear over the course of the night is that Joe Biden is fighting on behalf of the American people on substance, on policy, on performance.”
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.