George Latimer’s victory over incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman largely wasn’t based on taxes, social issues, scandal or any of the myriad local issues affecting the 16th Congressional District.
Instead, it was defined by a war raging 6,000 miles away — one over which neither candidate has any serious influence.
The race became widely viewed as a test of Democratic voter sentiment on the Israel-Hamas war. Bowman, a progressive, called Israel’s actions “genocide.” Latimer, the more-centrist Westchester County executive backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, has accused Bowman of antisemitism.
Latimer’s win represents a return to the center for the reliably blue district.
Here are some of the early takeaways from Latimer’s victory.
The Democratic establishment strikes back.
Bowman took the political world by storm in 2020 when he won his Democratic primary against then-Rep. Eliot Engel, a 16-term incumbent who had the backing of much of the Democratic establishment at the time, including Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
But this time, the establishment struck back, rallying behind Latimer and returning the district — which spans from southern Westchester to the northern Bronx — to more moderate representation.
Latimer had the support of a number of big-name Democrats, like former Gov. David Paterson and former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, in addition to Engel himself. Bowman had the backing of prominent progressives, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
With his win over Bowman, Latimer has yet to lose an election.
Make it 22 for 22.
With his win Tuesday night, Latimer further cemented his status as a Westchester County electoral force.
He’s now won all 22 elections he’s competed in — 17 general elections, five primaries — dating back to his very first win in 1987 for a seat on the Rye City Council. From there, he was elected to the Westchester County Board of Legislators, then to the state Assembly, then to the state Senate, then Westchester County executive and now congressman–elect.
The only asterisk dates back to 2002. That year, Latimer launched a brief, longshot bid for the Democratic Party’s nomination for lieutenant governor. But he dropped out of the race well before Primary Day and was never actually on the ballot.
Israel resonated, but all politics is local
Latimer struck a chord with an issue that is front-of-mind for many voters: Israel’s war in Gaza. He and his pro-Israel stance were boosted in part by an aggressive get-out-the-vote campaign by Jewish organizations like the political branch of the Teach Coalition, an organization that pushes for funding for Jewish schools.
But Latimer also has a reputation as an adept retail politician, known for shaking hands with residents at diners, train stations and houses of worship, and doling out his personal phone number at senior centers to just about anybody who’ll take it.
Latimer had the support of 11 local Democratic committees in Westchester County, a slate of city mayors and much of the Westchester delegation in Albany.
He supplemented the political support with the backing of AIPAC and pro-Israel groups that poured millions of dollars in ad spending to attack his opponent.
Bowman, on the other hand, has been more of a national figure, making him a progressive favorite well beyond the confines of his district and a foil for conservatives and critics within the Democratic Party. Latimer used that against Bowman, painting him as someone who cares more about his national profile than issues at home.
Bowman’s loss shows the limits of progressive politics in suburban New York.
To progressives, Bowman was the clear choice: He championed policies like the Green New Deal for public schools and universal healthcare and even partook in pro-Palestinian protest chants at rallies, including at his campaign launch.
But the two candidates were still Democrats running to represent a mostly suburban district that begins on the northern edge of the Bronx and runs into southern Westchester County, where congestion pricing is unpopular and property taxes are a familiar gripe among homeowners.
At a recent debate on NY1, both Bowman and Latimer declined to say whether Gov. Kathy Hochul was right to put an eleventh-hour pause on congestion pricing.
Both candidates also supported repealing a cap on state and local tax deductions, known as SALT which, since being enacted by the Republican-controlled House in 2017, has caused bipartisan furor, most vocally outside of New York City.
Bowman also had the support of several New York City-based elected officials, including a slate of progressive councilmembers, Comptroller Brad Lander and Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. Latimer touted his Westchester support as a sign of waning confidence in Bowman from the community.
Turnout was lower than 2020
In a race that featured tens of millions of dollars in campaign and PAC advertising, voters turned out in lower numbers than they did when Bowman first won four years ago.
Roughly 70% of ballots had been counted as of 10:30 p.m. Tuesday, with Latimer receiving 34,058 to Bowman’s 27,028.
Compare that to the 2020 primary, when Bowman — then the challenger — took on Engel, the longtime incumbent. That year, 94,132 people cast a ballot in the race, with Bowman taking home more than 49,000 of them.
Turnout was lowest in the 2022 primary, when about 40,000 voters turned out. Bowman took home 54% of the vote in that lower-profile, four-person race.