The Warriors have the 52nd overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, giving Mike Dunleavy Jr. and his front office a chance to add an NBA-ready player to the mix.
Last year, picking 57th, the Warriors did just that by selecting Trayce Jackson-Davis, who looks like a rotational center for years to come.
Hitting on such a low pick can have tremendous value. Jackson-Davis’ rookie-scale deal, for instance, is worth less than $2 million annually over four years. For a team that paid roughly $180 million in luxury tax alone last year, finding contributors on cheap contracts is key.
The Warriors have worked out over 30 prospects, most of whom played at least three years of college ball. It’s still very early in his tenure as general manager, but it looks like Dunleavy has a type.
The Warriors could trade up in what is widely considered a weak draft but as of now, every team besides the Mavericks can take a swing before them.
Picking so low in the draft, though, makes it futile to project specific players. In the second round, teams often make backroom deals with players and their agents to promise concrete roles, chances to make the team or contract specifics. Players fall out of the first round unexpectedly. Throw away the mock drafts.
Instead, it may be more valuable to examine which types of players the Warriors should target.
Perimeter shooting
Regardless of if Klay Thompson returns, the Warriors must emphasize 3-point shooting.
Too often last year, defenses didn’t need to respect several players on the perimeter and could load up in help against Steph Curry. Especially when the Warriors play Jackson-Davis and Draymond Green together, they’ll be pressed for spacing. The problem will be worse if Jonathan Kuminga’s shot doesn’t improve.
The Warriors made the second-most 3s per game last year. They shot 38% on them — seventh highest in the league. But don’t let the numbers distract from reality.
If it wasn’t Curry or Thompson shooting, odds are, the defense was pretty much fine with any Warrior launching from deep. Andrew Wiggins? Go for it. Kuminga from the corner? Leave him open. Even Brandin Podziemski, who made 38.5% of his 3s, was hesitant to launch at times.
Curry and Thompson combined for over half the Warriors’ 3-pointers, and they might lose Thompson.
Surrounding Curry with 3-point shooters defenses need to respect will open up driving lanes for everyone. No matter what style the Warriors choose to play going forward, they’ll need shooting across the positional spectrum — not just from the Splash Bros — to unlock it.
You might not be able to steal an NBA-ready deadeye with the 52nd pick. But if the young Warriors’ perimeter shots plateau — or if that group gets thinned out by offseason acquisitions — having another option off the bench to take a few corner 3s would be helpful.
Players who fit the bill: Pelle Larsson, Keshad Johnson, Cam Spencer, Zyon Pullin, Jaylen Wells, Jalen Bridges, Quinten Post
Wing size
Just like you can never have enough starting pitchers in baseball, you can never have enough wings in the modern NBA.
The Warriors’ wing depth chart could look a lot different later in the offseason. Thompson’s future is murky. Kuminga is the team’s best trade chip. Moses Moody’s role has never been solidified.
Oddly enough, Wiggins — as the only reliable point-of-attack defender on the roster — might be the most indispensable of them all.
Regardless of who stays and who goes, the Warriors could use more players who can at least match body types with the most dangerous forwards in the league — Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard.
If a hypothetical 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-9 rangy athlete can also shoot, he won’t fall to the second round. But maybe the Warriors can help him learn to shoot.
Players who fit the bill: Keshad Johnson, Jonathan Mogbo, Jalen Bridges, Adem Bona, Kevin McCullar Jr., Ryan Dunn
Iso creation
The Warriors don’t have a creative, aggressive shot-taker on the roster outside of Curry. It can be hard to fit that kind of player into Steve Kerr’s preferred read-and-react style, but the Warriors need more juice one way or another.
Wiggins has been that player for stretches, but can’t be relied upon. Kuminga might one day become that player, but his post and face-up touches often look clunky. Podziemski is working on playing more with the ball in his hands, but projects more as an all-around playmaker than a 20-points-per-game scorer.
The last on-ball creator the Warriors had next to Curry was Jordan Poole. At his peak, it worked wonders.
Finding a one-on-one scorer is much easier via trade than it will be in the late second round — think Zach LaVine, Brandon Ingram, Jimmy Butler or Paul George. It still might be worth taking a flier on a bucket-getter. The 52nd pick is a dart toss, after all.
Players who fit the bill: Jonathan Mogbo, AJ Johnson, Jaylon Tyson, Judah Mintz