Former president Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden among independent voters some five months ahead of the presidential election, according to a new poll.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face the incumbent president in November, and polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight, with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.
However, a new poll has shown Trump is edging ahead of Biden among one important group of voters: independents. According to the ActiVote poll of 2,029 likely voters, the Republican is 22 points ahead of Biden among independent voters in a two-way matchup, holding 61 percent of the vote share to Biden’s 39 percent.
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In a three-way poll, which includes independent candidate Robert D. Kennedy Jr., Trump would still win 47 percent of independent votes, while Biden would win 28 percent of the vote share, the survey showed.
The poll was conducted June 5-21 and has a mean average error of 2.2 percent.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email outside of normal business hours to comment on this story.
The poll follows a separate May survey that also showed Trump leading among this voting demographic. In this NPR/PBS/ NewsHour/Marist National survey, 54 percent of independent voters said they supported Trump and 42 percent said they would opt for Biden.
But a June survey by the same pollsters found that Biden was in the lead among independents by 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, with another 2 percent undecided.
While national polls are indicative of the nation’s mood, they may not be crucial in determining the result of the election. Instead, the election will likely be determined by a handful of key swing states, as the Electoral College system awards each state a certain number of votes based on population.
A presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
Nevertheless, independents are a key demographic and small shifts among these voters could determine whether swing states are won by either candidate.
On June 27, Biden and Trump are set to square off in Atlanta, Georgia, for the first of two scheduled debates ahead of the general election.
After Thursday’s debate in the key swing state, a second debate between the two candidates is scheduled for September 10. Then, on November 5, voters are set to cast their ballots for the next president.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.