AUSTIN (KXAN) — On this first day of astronomical summer, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Climate Prediction Center released their preliminary outlook for July.
July is usually Central Texas’ second driest month of the year, meaning our rainfall prospects aren’t usually that great to begin with. This July, however, holds some hope for rain…at least for some of us.
July forecast
Our second hottest month is looking hotter than normal. Odds lean toward a warmer than normal July, but areas away from Texas are much more likely to have a hotter July given the darker red shading, which indicates higher confidence in that outlook.
Our rainfall outlook leans wetter than normal for the Austin Metro and our eastern counties, whereas the Hill Country appears on track for a near-normal July.
The wetter than normal expectations favor areas closer to the Gulf of Mexico which has already produced our first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season (Alberto) and may continue to be more active for the next few months.
What’s normal for July in Austin?
Normally in July, our high temperatures are deep into the 90s and our nights are in the mid 70s. We usually get less than two inches of rain.
Triple digits in July
Typically, July brings 10 triple-digit days a year in Austin at Camp Mabry. Here’s how the last five Julys have faired for the number of 100º+ days.
- 2023: 25 days
- 2022: 29 days (record)
- 2021: 1 day
- 2020: 20 days
- 2019: 11 days
Hotter July following a warm June
Despite the lack of triple digit days so far in June, we were experiencing the 6th warmest start to the month on record through June 18 in Austin.
We’ll see if that trend continues into July.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team for the latest forecast.