The Texas Politics Project conducted this poll from May 31 to June 9, 2024 on 1200 registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 2.83% (3.16% adjusted for weighting)
AUSTIN (Nexstar) — New polling released Thursday from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas examines where Texans stand on 2024 candidates, border security and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).
2024 elections
In Texas, the poll shows Donald Trump has a lead over Joe Biden. When polled head to head, Trump stands at 46% and Biden at 39%.
The poll also asked who voters would support in a six-way race, including candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver. In that scenario, 43% supported Trump, while Biden’s support dropped to 34%. Kennedy earned 8% support, with Stein and West each garnering 2% support.
Of those who said they would vote for Biden, 53% said they wanted him to be president, while 47% said they would vote for him because they do not want Trump in the White House. Meanwhile, 74% of those who said they would vote for Trump said it was because they wanted him to be president.
The June poll by the Texas Politics Project is the first since the guilty verdict last month in Trump’s hush money trial. The former president’s favorability rating among Texas voters dropped to 45%, down from 49% in the organization’s April poll.
When asked if Trump’s conviction would have an impact on their vote in 2024, Texans had mixed responses. While 27% in the poll said they would be less likely to support Trump, 36% of Texas voters said they were now more likely to vote for Trump. Just under one-third of voters polled said the conviction would have no impact on their vote.
Of the two frontrunners for the 2024 race for U.S. Senate — Senator Ted Cruz (R) and Congressman Colin Allred (D) — Cruz leads in the new polls by 11%. The poll shows 14% responded that they haven’t thought about the race enough to have an opinion.
Most important issues
Texas voters listed inflation as the most important problem facing the country, with 18% of those in the poll showing that concern. Political corruption and the economy rounded out the top three national concerns.
Border security was identified by voters as the most important issue facing Texas today, followed closely by immigration.
Polling found that one third of Texans believe that Texas spends too little on border security. Currently, the state allocates more than $11 billion in taxpayer money to Operation Lone Star, Texas’ effort to deploy state guard members and law enforcement to the border in what they describe as negligence from the Biden administration.
Electric grid
Texas Politics Project asked voters how likely they foresee certain hypothetical scenarios concerning the Texas power grid taking place this summer. Half of Texans believe it is likely that they will be asked to conserve power at some point this summer and a quarter of Texans expect rolling or temporary power blackouts.
From August 2023 to September 2023, Texans were asked on several accounts to conserve power due to “tight grid conditions.”
Poll methodology
The Texas Politics Project statewide survey was conducted between May 31 and June 9. The poll interviewed 1,200 registered voters in Texas. The margin of error of the poll is +/- 2.83%.