I’m not sure why so many folks watching the Stanley Cup Final seem to have reached the conclusions that, a) the Rangers would have vanquished the Oilers, and not only that, would have routed them; plus, b) the gap between the Blueshirts and Panthers was overstated.
Can we deal with Part B first?
Maybe you have forgotten, but in the final four games of the Florida series, the Rangers’ five-on-five expected goal rate ranged from 26.53 percent to 36.41 percent. The Oilers have posted xGF rates of 62.77 percent, 37.04 percent, 52.71 percent and 45.49 percent through four games.
In other words, Edmonton’s worst xGF exceeded the Blueshirts’ best over the last four games of the conference final.