French far-right party Rassemblement National parliamentary group leader Marine Le Pen, left, and Jordan Bardella hold hands and gesture during the Rassemblement National’s 18th congress in Paris on Nov. 5, 2022. (Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty Images/TNS)
TNS
For generations, the French establishment had a tacit agreement that prevented far-right parties from getting close to national power. That model is starting to come apart.
In the week since Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, his opponents from across the political spectrum have been engaged in frantic negotiations to seal alliances that would maximize their chances in the two-round ballot that concludes on July 7.
That process ended on Sunday evening with the deadline for the parties to finalize their candidates and it leaves Macron’s party, Renaissance, under assault from both left and right and trailing a distant third place in the polls.
If Le Pen’s National rally can extend its lead in the polls to cement a majority, it would pose a fundamental challenge to the European Union leaders – who are gathering in Brussels Monday to discuss how to ramp up the fight against climate change and stiffen their response to Russian aggression.
Her task is being made easier by the increasing radicalization of part of the French left and by the uncomfortable alliance among groups ranging from the far-left France Unbowed to the more moderate Socialists. That could undermine the so-called republican front, under which mainstream parties would always join forces to defeat the far right.
The main parties on the French left have leapfrogged Macron’s party in the polls by forging a fragile alliance of four parties centered on Jean-Luc Melenchon, the charismatic leader of the far-left group France Unbowed. Their campaign pledges, unveiled last week, would rip up Macron’s legacy of economic reforms and set the country on course for a collision with the European Union over fiscal policy.
Add in Melenchon’s history of using anti-semitic tropes and that means that voting for the Popular Front is beyond the pale for many centrists.
Even Macron has refused to say for whom he would vote if he had to choose between Le Pen and Melenchon. His former government spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire said Sunday that she would abstain.
“I can’t vote for a man who describes the situation of anti-Semitism in France as residual,” Grégoire told RTL on Sunday. “It’s beyond me, it’s not possible.”
Allegations of anti-semitism have hung over Melenchon since 2013, when he accused the Socialist economy minister, Pierre Moscovici, of not “thinking French,” but “international finance,” evoking the cliche of the Jewish banker. Melenchon said at the time that he wasn’t aware that Moscovici was Jewish.
Serge Klarsfeld, a Jewish historian known for his fight to hold Nazis to account, told LCI on Saturday that he would vote for Le Pen’s movement over Melenchon’s, saying it had “anti-Semitic overtones and violent anti-Zionism.”
To be sure, the Popular Front is a fragile alliance and its members have papered over a number of deep-rooted differences in an effort avoid fragmenting the left-wing vote, so it could still be undermined by public infighting in the two weeks until the first round of voting.
On Sunday, in an effort to stabilize the alliance, Melenchon said that he’s prepared to let someone else become prime minister if the Popular Front wins a majority. A Melenchon protege who had previously been convicted for domestic violence also withdrew from the election on Sunday following a backlash from other parties in the alliance.
As the campaign shifts up a gear on Monday, Le Pen and her allies are trying to capitalize on that development by reaching out to mainstream voters by insisting they can be trusted on the economy.
“I’ll restore order in the streets and in the public accounts,” National Rally leader Jordan Bardella told France 3 television. Le Pen has said that Bardella will be prime minister if she can form a majority.
The National Rally is already on track to become the biggest party in the lower house, according to projections by polling companies, a prospect which has caused alarm among investors, France’s international partners and a section of the French public.
Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets across France on Saturday to oppose Le Pen’s stance on human rights, the environment and the economy. Financial markets have also tumbled since Macron dissolved the National Assembly a week ago, with about $210 billion wiped off the value of French stocks.
The National Rally hasn’t yet set out its policy proposals in detail but it has said it would slash sales taxes on fuel and energy at a cost of about €20 billion ($21 billion) and pledged to take back control of energy policy from the EU. It has also promised to lower the retirement age to 60 and increase wages for some public servants.
“Financial markets don’t really understand the National Rally’s project,” Le Pen told Le Figaro. “They have only heard the caricature of our project. When they read about it, they find it rather reasonable.”
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This story was originally published June 16, 2024, 9:57 PM.