While the newly released Iowa Poll shows former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley surpassing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, it indicated her success in the state would likely come down to voters’ willingness to head to the polls amid bitter-cold temperatures.
A recent survey of Iowa Republican voters ahead of the party’s caucus on Monday shows that Haley has overtaken DeSantis, moving into second place but still trailing former President Donald Trump by double digits, according to a Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom Iowa Poll that was released on Saturday night.
The Iowa Poll shows 48 percent of Republican voters are planning to select Trump as their first choice for president.
Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung emailed a statement to Newsweek on Saturday night, which urged supporters of the former president’s to show up on Monday.
“Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up to Caucus for President Trump on Monday and get the job done,” the statement reads. “We have to show up.”
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Newsweek reached out via email on Saturday night to Haley’s representatives for comment.
Since the poll was last conducted in December 2023, support for Haley has jumped from 16 percent to 20 percent, making it her best showing of any Iowa Poll, according to the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile Support for DeSantis has fallen three percentage points to 16 percent, contributing to his dip to third place, the polling data shows.
However, even as Haley moves up in the ranking, J. Ann Selzer, who helped conduct the poll, said her support appears to be on “shaky ground,” the Des Moines Register reported.
After months of campaigning, the Republican presidential hopefuls will face voters for the first time at the Iowa caucus on Monday as blizzard conditions and sub-zero temperatures are forecast to continue to blasting the state.
The National Weather Service warns that an “arctic cold” could cause temperatures to drop to negative 15 degrees in some parts of the state shortly before the caucuses begin at 7 p.m.
Selzer, president of polling form Selzer & Company, told the Des Moines Register that the Iowa Poll shows Haley’s supporters appear unenthusiastic about their choice for president, which could mean they’re less likely to venture out in the bitter cold and snow.
About 49 percent of voters who plan to caucus for Haley say they are only “mildly enthusiastic” and 12 percent are “not that enthusiastic,” the poll shows.
The Des Moines Register noted that Haley is the only candidate included in the poll to see a spike among her supporters who said they are only mildly or not that enthusiastic.
“Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping,” Selzer said. “That 61 percent are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.”
Newsweek reached out via email on Saturday to Selzer for comment.
Roughly 9 percent said they are “extremely enthusiastic” to caucus for Haley, who also served as the governor of South Carolina. Another 30 percent said they are “enthusiastic,” according to the Iowa Poll.
Update 1/13/24, 10:50 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Cheung.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.